Even though theaters are planning to reopen in July and screen the newest releases, there’s no guarantee that will be able to happen.
The pandemic remains a fluid situation, and especially as cases rise in areas that are reopening, it’s impossible to predict where things will stand a month from now when Mulan and Tenet are gearing up for their respective premieres.
It isn’t a stretch to suggest both will have to move again, and in that event Disney would be in worse financial shape than WB.
The Reason
According to The Wrap, it’d be more affordable for WB to delay Tenet again than for Disney to delay Mulan due to marketing costs.
Because of its initial March release date, Mulan was in the home stretch of a very visible promotional campaign, which included multiple trailers, TV spots, a Super Bowl commercial, and other materials.
In contrast, Tenet’s advertising never really kicked into full swing. Prior to the latest Tenet trailer released in May, the film only had a teaser that premiered last December.
Marketing the Film is DAMN Expensive
Major studio tentpoles don’t just cost hundreds of millions of dollars to produce, it’s also an expensive process to market them. That’s why the general rule of thumb is if a film is to break even at the box office, it needs to gross twice its budget.
For example, Mulan cost $200 million to produce, meaning under normal circumstances it’d need to earn at least $400 million worldwide to make its money back.
But if Mulan is pushed back further, Disney would likely have to invest even more money into Mulan promotion. That would make it more difficult for the movie to break even, especially since theaters will limit attendance and people may be leery of going to the theater in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Movies aren’t going to see the types of box office revenue they were used to before the COVID-19 pandemic. So now, what do you all think about this guys?